CABEI presents study denominated “Economic impact of COVID- 19, an analysis for Central America, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico”
This indicative analysis will enable CABEI to inform and guide its decision-making management in support of its member countries.
Tegucigalpa, April 24, 2020.- The Chief Economist Office of the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) prepared the report denominated, "Economic Impact of COVID-19: An Analysis for Central America, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico," in order to quantify the effects on economic activity and public debt that countries could face in 2020.
CABEI Executive President Dr. Dante Mossi commented that, "This research is relevant and timely. Now more than ever it is essential to have information that helps to better cope with what is happening in the countries' economies. CABEI is aware of the complicated situation and as a development bank, it is ready to help and provide information in order to fulfill its commitment to do everything possible to support its member countries in the face of such global challenges."
The report presents estimates for two scenarios. Both represent an absolute stoppage of production in previously defined sensitive sectors. The first scenario involves a two-month stoppage and the second scenario a three-month stoppage. Both scenarios incorporate a four-month lag in production for the hotel and restaurant sectors. This analysis shows that GDP growth in 2020 would be in the range between -2.5 and -4.9 percent for Central America. Estimates for Argentina are between -5.7 and -7.6 percent, Colombia between -2.0 and -4.0 percent and Mexico within the -4.4 and -6.9 percent range. Economic growth would be mainly impacted by the reduction in such activities as commerce, construction, transportation, hotels and restaurants, financial intermediation and entertainment services.
This report and additional information is available at www.bcie.org or here.
